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Super Recovery Bowl XLIV Scores � Retail Advertising Bets Big, Consumer Stats Rise, Auto Ads Dominate, Facebook and Twitter Are Odds-On #SB44 Winners

2010-02-07T06:04:09Z

If Super Bowl XLIII was dubbed the Recession Bowl, then Super Bowl XLIV can rightfully claim to be the Recovery Bowl, as some consumer stats rose and advertisers placed big multi-million dollar bets. The world's most popular advertising commercial showcase was dominated by the incompatible combination of beer and autos, but predictions say that Facebook and Twitter are the odds-on favorites to benefit most from long-term Super Bowl advertising spillover.

In 2009 the extravagance of the Super Bowl recessed to mirror the mood of the country. In 2010, despite the fact that a substantial number of Americans still disapprove of the $93,000 per second paid for advertising, Super Bowl XLIV recovered at least some of its buzz.

The public expressed a lot of emotional investment in the Super Bowl XLIV before the pre-game show even began. (The Recovery Bowl moniker will definitely stick for a long time with a New Orleans upset.) But even though a good number of the 100 million viewers actually cared about the final numbers on the game scoreboard this year, the majority of viewers still cared more about what happened in between the action on the field. According to a Nielsen poll, 51% of Super Bowl television viewers expected the commercials to provide the best entertainment of the event.

Advertisers are always optimistic about the return on their Super Bowl advertising investment, but this year that optimism seemed to be far ahead of consumer reality. Spending for merchandise, food, and televisions was even lower in 2010 than it was for last year's Recession Bowl, according to the annual Retail Advertising and Marketing Association (RAMA) "Super Bowl Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey." Overall, about $8.9 billion Super Bowl dollars were predicted to change hands in 2010, which drops Super Bowl spending back to 2007 levels. Unfortunately this stat indicates recession, not recovery.

The marketing scoreboard for every Super Bowl is cluttered with numbers that measure the non-sports aspects of the event from every conceivable angle, even some angles that probably never really needed to be conceived. Some of the numbers on the 2010 marketing scoreboard provide the answers to the Recovery Bowl FAQs for the retail industry.

Who Purchased Advertising Spots in Super Bowl XLIV From the Retail Industry?

Twelve retail industry companies advertised in this year's Recovery Bowl, compared to 6 retail advertisers in last year's Recession Bowl.
More than half of the retail industry advertisers in the 2010 Super Bowl were automobile companies or auto-related. Only 3 car companies were Super Bowl advertisers in 2009.
Looking at the history of Super Bowl retail commercials, automobile companies lead the retail advertising spending, having spent $108.6 million on Super Bowl commercials. This puts automobile retailers Super Bowl budgets third, just behind Hollywood movies and beer.

What Retail Industry Products and Services Were Advertised In the 2010 Recovery Bowl?

Audi - A3 TDI with a diesel engine
Bridgestone - Tires
Cars.com - Website
Chrysler - Dodge Charger
Denny's - Free Grand Slam breakfast, birthday club free breakfast
Honda - Crosstour wagon-sedan crossover
Hyundai - 10-year warranties, Sonata paint job better than Mercedes
Kia - 2011 Sorento crossover
Papa John's - Pro Bowl special deliveries
Taco Bell - NBA Five Buck Box
Teleflora - Sarcastic talking flowers
Volkswagen - Slug Bug

Take the Super Bowl Super Commercial Super Trivia Quiz

Why Were Retailers Willing to Pay $93,000 Per Second to Advertise in the 2010 Super Bowl?

A study by one ad agency revealed that 66% of 2009 Super Bowl viewers remember their favorite advertiser, but only 39% remember which team won. The same survey concluded that 40 million people will watch the Super Bowl commercials online, and 26% will share their favorite commercials with their friends in cyberspace.
According to a ComScore poll, 77 million people will be logged onto the internet before the Super Bowl begins this year, and 3.8 million of them will be buying Super Bowl related merchandise.
If post-game results are the same in 2010 as they were in 2009, web traffic to the websites of Super Bowl advertisers will increase an average of 63%, the day after the event, according to Nielsen.
Month-over-month web traffic increased an average of 6% on the websites of 2009 Super Bowl advertisers from January to February.

When Retailers Advertised in the 2009 Recession Bowl, What Results Did They Get?

Denny's bought one ad spot in Super Bowl XLIII, and served two million free Grand Slam meals that were offered during that commercial, at a cost of $5 million in free food. Same store sales in the Denny's chain fell 4.5% in the first three quarters of 2009. But because of the free press and image boost that Denny's received from its Recession Bowl promotion, the company more than doubled its Recovery Bowl spending. Three Denny's spots were purchased in 2010.
After just one 30-second spot, Overstock.com had 728,000 visitor on its website the day after the Super Bowl in 2009. This represented a 33% increase in traffic for the deep discount internet retailer.

Does It Matter How Retail Companies Advertise in the Super Bowl?

The commercials that run in the first quarter will be remembered much more than those that appeared later in the game, according to Nielsen.

When Is It Not a Good Time for Retailers to Advertise During a Superbowl?

According to the ComScore survey, 37% of people disapproved of the advertising dollars spent on the 2010 Super Bowl, 21% approved, and 41% didn't much care one way or the other.

Which Advertisers Will Win The Competition for the Consumer in Super Bowl XLIV?

The odds-on favorites to win in the long-term are Facebook and Twitter. Neither of these companies purchased advertising spots because why would they? Driving traffic to and through Facebook and Twitter accounts is a big part of the overall marketing strategy for just about every Recovery Bowl advertiser.

The only thing Facebook and Twitter needed to do to capitalize on the largest U.S. sporting event of the year was to figure out how to remain functional during heavy traffic spikes. Tweeters of the world know that remaining functional for several hours in a row is a challenge for Twitter on regular days. So hopefully the head Twits prepared well for #SB44, which was predicted by many to be a social media phenomenon.

U.S. retail industry companies stand to profit in 2010 from Super Bowl XLIV whether they purchased advertising time for the event or not. An exciting game, a spectacular half-time show, some buzz-worthy commercial entertainment, and a sentimental favorite underdog team had all the makings for a mood-altering event. If the 200 million eyeballs that were focused on the event get a sustainable buzz from it, then the Recovery Bowl might be viewed historically as a significant contributor to the attitudinal recovery of the American consumer.

As they say, in economic recovery, as in sports, (as in life), attitude isn't everything, but it is pretty much all that.

More About the Retail Industry in the Super Bowl:

Recession Bowl 2009

Super Bowl Consumer Survey 2005 - 2010

Vintage Retail Super Bowl Commercials

Super Recovery Bowl XLIV Scores � Retail Advertising Bets Big, Consumer Stats Rise, Auto Ads Dominate, Facebook and Twitter Are Odds-On #SB44 Winners originally appeared on About.com Retail Industry on Sunday, February 7th, 2010 at 06:04:09.

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Retail Industry Companies on Best Employer List Outperformed Retail Stock Index by 75% (EBAY, SBUX, WMT)

2010-01-26T04:36:02Z

Fifteen members of the U.S. retail industry were designated to be 2010 "Best Companies to Work For" on Fortune Magazine's most recently released ranking list. A look at a five-year comparison of Fortune's best retail employers reveals that these same fifteen companies are denizens of this particular ranking list. EBay (EBAY) fell off the list completely this year, and Starbucks (SBUX) dropped to #93, compared to its previous ranking of #24. Considering the news that's been coming out of both of those companies, neither of these changes is particularly surprising.

While there were no big surprises for the retail industry in this year's best employers list, when compared to another recently released workplace study, the Fortune "Best Companies to Work For" list gains much greater significance for U.S. retailers in 2010.

While Fortune was compiling its best employers list, the Conference Board, a non-profit management organization, was doing a study of its own. The Conference Board study revealed that job dissatisfaction in the U.S. is at its highest level in 23 years. According to the 2009 Conference Board job satisfaction study, here's how average American workers feel about their jobs:

Only 12% are "very satisfied" with their jobs
Only 34% are satisfied with their paychecks
Only 28% are satisfied with the non-financial recognition they receive at work
22% are hoping to get a new job in the next year

The 13 million people who have no jobs at all probably read those statistics and find it hard to muster much sympathy for the people who still have regular paychecks, no matter how unsatisfying the workplaces behind those paychecks may be. The unemployed would probably also be willing to switch places with the 22% who are eager to leave their unsatisfying jobs so that they can take their turn on the unemployment line. That seems fair.

The most significant thing about this job dissatisfaction survey is... read more>

Retail Industry Companies on Best Employer List Outperformed Retail Stock Index by 75% (EBAY, SBUX, WMT) originally appeared on About.com Retail Industry on Tuesday, January 26th, 2010 at 04:36:02.

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U.S. Retail Industry Numbers: 663 Store Closings, 967 Store Openings, 4 Chapter 11 Filings, Sales Surprises, Conflicting Conclusions, and Recovery Remarks

2010-01-19T03:17:04Z

There may not have been a lot of sales in the U.S. retail industry in the first two weeks of 2010, but there were plenty of numbers. Unlike this time last year, 2010 store closings are in the hundreds, instead of the thousands, job cuts are in the thousands instead of the tens of thousands, store opening plans far outnumber store closing activities, and global stores openings are planned in every developed country.

But even though we're all desperately seeking recovery, Chapter 11 filings and unemployment continue, while numbing numbers and hasty headlines are giving false positive signals that create inflated hope and lead to disappointment. Disappointment is not really good for the consumer psyche right now.

Watching retail numbers spin out of the U.S. retail industry in the past couple of weeks was like watching an episode of "The Bachelor" reality show. It's equally as humorous to watch seemingly intelligent women conclude that they have met their happily-ever-after soulmate at the end of one date as it is to watch seemingly intelligent retail experts conclude that the retail industry is in recovery after any less-than-horrible number is reported.

Christmas week sales were up 2.3%. "Recovery!" Holiday sales estimates predicted a positive 3.6%. "Recovery!" Same store sales were up 2.9%. "Recovery!" Online sales jumped 5%. "Recovery!"

But just like it always happens with The Bachelor's harem too, reality crept into the retail industry, and premature conclusions proved themselves to be sadly uninformed. Month-over-month, December sales were actually down, unemployment is stuck at record high levels, and adjusted for inflation, the full year of 2009 sales is at 1999 levels. That doesn't add up to happily-ever-after to me.

Two days before these reality numbers hit the retail industry last week, economist Mark Zandi stood in front of the 99th annual National Retail Federation (NRF) Conference and reportedly told a room full of retail industry professionals, "The economy today is measurably better than a year ago." Really, Mr. Zandi? Better?

In December 2008 the unemployment rate was 7.2%. In December 2009 that rate was 10%. According to my calculator, Mr. Zandi, that's 3.9 million more people who don't have a regular income this year than a year ago, which is not exactly "better" by any measure.

In 2009, businesses filed bankruptcy papers 89,402 times, which was nearly a 40% increase from 2008. Explain to us, Mr. Zandi, if the economy is better than it was a year ago, why did the number of personal bankruptcy filings increase by 32% in 2009 and why does the American Bankruptcy Institute expect that to increase even more in 2010? If the ABI is correct, more than 1.4 million additional Americans will be bankrupt and living with a trashed credit rating by the end of 2010. That doesn't seem to be better, Mr. Zandi, but I'm sure you have some kind of an extrapolation that tells you why it is.

If things are measurably better now, then why are 871,086 more people without their homes, their equity, and their housing investment at the end of 2009? This is on top of the 861,664 people who had their homes repossessed in 2008. If renting is better, homelessness is better, and moving down on the socioeconomic ladder is better, then I guess you're right that life for these people is measurably better, Mr. Zandi.

There is one thing that is notably better than last year, and that is the stock market. That could be considered a positive point to support Mr. Zandi's position except for one thing. The stock market, as has been dramatically illustrated more than once in the past two decades, is not really a reliable economic indicator as much as it is a legal form of institutionalized gambling.

I'm sure Mr. Zandi would want to remind me at this point that unemployment and retail sales are lagging economic indicators and then pull out lots of graphs and numbers that prove that his economic conclusions are correct. To that I would have to remind Mr. Zandi that he delivered his "measurably better" message to a retailing audience, and that retailing can never be reduced to numbers and charts because there are people involved. People are not numbers, human beings can't be quantified, and the "laggards" aren't really in a big spending-consuming mood. It's the people whose lives are "measurably worse" that are causing the reality of recovery to be out of line with economic calculations, estimations, and predictions.

So what are retailers supposed to do with all of this conflicting data and all of these mixed messages? Hopefully, they're ignoring the numbers and paying attention to their customers. To average consumers, "the economy" doesn't extend beyond their own personal financial statements. And despite what any economist says in any keynote speech, if average American consumers were asked to describe their personal finances, I find it hard to believe that a great number of them would actually check the box that says "measurably better."

Leaders of publicly traded retail organizations know better than to get all twirled up in industry numbers and those who analyze them. But retail onlookers might think that all of the numbers and conclusions that have been flying around in the past few weeks seem conflicted, crazy and chaotic. For these people, a book like "The Retail Industry Numbers for Dummies" would be helpful.

It might seem like this would be one dull book, but really a "Retail Industry Numbers for Dummies" manual would be a very quick read because it would only need to contain about five points and five paragraphs:

#1 - The NRF and ICSC are industry trade organizations and will always spin numbers and facts in a way that will shine the most positive light on their retail industry members. Assume the numbers from these organizations are always skewed to the positive.

#2 - Same store sales are the most largely ineffective measurements in existence and shouldn't be considered a meaningful indicator of much of anything. Follow the lead of stock analysts and investors and largely ignore monthly same store sales numbers.

#3 - Analysts are "disappointed" much more often than not. Consider analysts' predictions to always be overly optimistic.

#4 - Most of the media is more interested in good headlines than good understanding. Consider their conclusions to be inappropriately broad, and hastily drawn.

#5 - Economists live in a world of numbers and theory, but human beings do not. Since the warm-blooded part of retailing can't be quantified, economists' conclusions are almost always incomplete when it comes to retailing.

With these five guidelines in mind, the numbers that came out of the U.S. retail industry in the past few weeks make a lot more sense.

Out of 80 economists asked to project December's retail sales numbers, 80 of them were wrong, according to Reuters. I would say that even that number is wrong because by my calculations, the total should be 81, after hearing what Mark Zandi had to say at the NRF convention.

We're glad that the recession is over on paper, Mr. Zandi (and Mr. Bernanke), but paper isn't people, and telling people in diminished circumstances over and over again how much better the economy is, isn't very endearing. And making business decisions based on paper reality rather than people reality is not very wise for the U.S. retail industry. The U.S. economy can't afford for the U.S. retail industry to make major missteps because it is the one industry saddled with the contradiction of being both a leader and a lagger in recovery.

Until the lives of consumers are actually "measurably better," retailers can't believe in that reality because if they do, they will lose touch with the needs and expectations of their customers, and then they will lose those customers. That is the non-extrapolated reality of this year's retail reality show.

U.S. Retail Industry Numbers: 663 Store Closings, 967 Store Openings, 4 Chapter 11 Filings, Sales Surprises, Conflicting Conclusions, and Recovery Remarks originally appeared on About.com Retail Industry on Tuesday, January 19th, 2010 at 03:17:04.

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The Best and the Worst of the U.S. Retail Industry in 2009 - Highs, Lows, and a New Due North (DG, ARO, AAPL, VSI, SBUX, AMZN, BBI, SHLD, DDS, ANF)

2010-01-05T05:16:20Z

The easiest way to summarize the value of an entire year is to cherry-pick the most dramatic happenings and highlight them on one neat and tidy best and worst list. It's a traditional New Year exercise and the compulsion to do it this year seems to be particularly strong. That's probably partly because we're moving into a new decade, and mostly because we're especially anxious to leave the old decade behind.

As it pertains to the U.S. retail industry, it's pretty easy to rattle off the many worsts of 2009 - the worst store closings, worst stock prices, worst job cuts, worst sales comps, worst bankruptcies, and worst recessionary missteps. It's not quite as easy to rattle off a list of the bests for U.S. retailers in 2009. Unless less-worse is considered to be the new best, then the "bests" gets a little bit easier to identify.

The specific details behind the picks for the Best and Worst of the U.S. Retail Industry in 2009 list can be found by clicking on each individual link. In general the criteria used to pick the "Best and Worst of the Retail Industry in 2009" was an equitable blend of industry recognition, hard numbers, expert analysis, and because-I-said-so opinion. Holistic measurements are always best.

Since it's been a year of mostly bad news for the U.S. retail industry, let's end the year by focusing first on the best.

The Best of the U.S. Retail Industry in 2009... read more...

The Best and the Worst of the U.S. Retail Industry in 2009 - Highs, Lows, and a New Due North (DG, ARO, AAPL, VSI, SBUX, AMZN, BBI, SHLD, DDS, ANF) originally appeared on About.com Retail Industry on Tuesday, January 5th, 2010 at 05:16:20.

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Best of the Last Christmas Eve and Christmas Day Last-Minute Gift Shopping Options From 50 U.S. Retailers

2009-12-24T00:27:02Z

American shoppers are working the last nerve of the U.S. retail industry this holiday shopping season with last-minute shopping activity that has forced many retail chains to increase their own last-minute activities. Many major retail chains have unexpectedly extended their store hours this week in order to increase the number of last minutes that shoppers will have to spend money on Christmas Eve, and even on Christmas Day. Despite the gift of extra shopping hours, though, the best last-minute shopping options may still be found online with the websites that offer e-gift cards and e-gift certificates.

After Super Saturday snowstorms sucker-punched both retailers and shoppers, many major retail chains scrambled to extend store hours to make up for the sales-stifling weather disaster. In the hours and minutes before Christmas Day 2009, the most desperate of the last-minute consumers will be found roaming the aisles of these stores looking for anything that is marginally appropriate and gift-worthy. The stores that will be happily opening their doors for last-minute shopping include:

7-Eleven - Open 24 hours through Christmas

CVS - Many stores open 24 hours through Christmas Day

K-Mart - Open 24 hours through 10:00 p.m. Christmas Eve

KTA Super Stores - Some stores open Christmas Day

Macy's - Some stores open 24 hours through 6:00 p.m. Christmas Eve

Safeway - Some stores open Christmas Day

Starbucks - Some stores open Christmas Day

Target - Open until 7:00 p.m. Christmas Eve

Toys 'R Us - Many stores open from 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Christmas Eve

Walgreens - Many stores open 24 hours through Christmas Day

Wal-Mart - Open until 8:00 p.m. Christmas Eve

The best of the last last-minute gift shopping options, though, may be e-gift cards and e-gift certificates, which can be purchased on the websites of more than 40 retailers through Christmas Day.

See a complete list of retail websites that offer e-gift cards and e-gift certificates

The electronic versions of gift cards and gift certificates work just like their physical counterparts, without the plastic. When you purchase e-gift cards or e-gift certificates, they will either be delivered directly to the recipient via e-mail, or you may be given the option to print them out from your own computer. This printed version can be wrapped in a gift box or tucked into a greeting card. If packaged well enough, this tech-savvy nifty gift can look like it was actually a planned and thoughtful purchase.

One caution about e-gift cards and e-gift certificates is to make sure you read the terms. Some of them can only be redeemed online, and not in brick-and-mortar stores. That might not be the best option for great Aunt Sophie who thinks computers are demonic devices of moral destruction. Another caution is to check for cutoff times. Some websites do have deadlines for making purchases on Christmas Day. You'll want to know what their scheduled "last minute" is so that you can schedule your own.

Speaking of gift cards, many companies are offering bonus incentives to gift card purchasers this holiday season. So if you are generous enough to give the gift of food and beverage from the Melting Pot, California Pizza Kitchen, the Cheesecake Factory, Denny's or T.G.I. Friday's, for example, you'll get to eat, drink and be merry at those same restaurants yourself with the bonus gift cards the chains will give you for free. Since many of these restaurants will be open on Christmas Day, the ultimate procrastinators can purchase their gift cards and gift them on the same day. Just make sure to leave enough time for the glue to dry on the envelope before the giving occurs. Otherwise, you're busted.

Retailers know that there are going to be a record-breaking number of last-minute purchases made this year, and they are eager and willing to do whatever it takes to be the recipient of as many of those last-minute dollars as possible. At least that's the prevailing attitude this year. The underlying hope, however, is that by this time next year, Americans will be back to their old habits of shopping early and shopping often.

Best of the Last Christmas Eve and Christmas Day Last-Minute Gift Shopping Options From 50 U.S. Retailers originally appeared on About.com Retail Industry on Thursday, December 24th, 2009 at 00:27:02.

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Best Bad Weather Online Retail Shopping Options: Ship-to-Store, In-Store Pickup, and Click-to-Brick E-tailers Best Positioned to Capture Super Saturday Winter Storm Sales

2009-12-19T14:29:46Z

Somewhere around 50 million people who might be boosting U.S. retail industry holiday sales today are spending Super Saturday at home instead, cursing the timing of a shopping-unfriendly winter storm. While online shopping seems like the only option for desperate consumers running out of time, the cost of expedited shipping that will ensure holiday delivery is not a good option for cost-conscious shoppers.

The best and most economical shopping option for homebound holiday shoppers this weekend are online e-tailers with in-store pickup options.

A growing number of large U.S. retailers have integrated their online shopping with their traditional brick-and-mortar stores to give virtual shoppers the option to pick up their purchases instead of having them shipped. The retailers with this ship-to-store option in place are the ones best positioned to capitalize on Super Saturday's unfortunate weather conditions.

See a complete list of online retail websites with ship-to-store, click-to-brick and in-store pickup options

Holiday shopping sales figures on Super Saturday were predicted to... read more...

Best Bad Weather Online Retail Shopping Options: Ship-to-Store, In-Store Pickup, and Click-to-Brick E-tailers Best Positioned to Capture Super Saturday Winter Storm Sales originally appeared on About.com Retail Industry on Saturday, December 19th, 2009 at 14:29:46.

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U.S. Retail Industry Numbers: 434 Store Closings, 1069 Store Openings, 8 Chapter 11 Filings and 21 Crimes Keep Retailers Busy This Holiday Shopping Season (DG, WALK.PK, JACK, CMG)

2009-12-15T04:33:57Z

In the busiest part of a transaction-challenged retail year, retailers would be happy to just focus on keeping their cash registers as busy as possible. But in the final weeks of a recession year, there are other pesky matters on the retail "To Do" list that are adding to the busy-ness of the U.S. retail industry. Things like last-minute openings and closings, Hail Mary Chapter 11 filings, liquidation sales, lease renegotiations, and those annoying holiday crime reports are stealing focus and keeping some retailers extra busy this year.

Dollar General (DG) is one of the busiest of the busy retailers. The public-turned-private chain went public again in November and 22 million shares changed hands at a price slightly higher than expected. Shortly after that, the chain announced that its year-to-date profits were up 296% over last year. Dollar General's merchandisers expect to grow those profits even more with the chain-specific designs they have been creating for their home and apparel product lines which will be mixed in with the private label products already stocked on the store's shelves.

The discount chain is aggressively courting holiday business by offering a selection of 400 toys, many priced at $5 or lower, in fearless response to Wal-Mart's 100 toys for $10 campaign. (For the record, Wal-Mart has not reported a triple-digit profit increase so far in 2009.) And Dollar General is also going toe-to-toe with convenience stores in Tennessee and Georgia by adding lottery tickets to its merchandising mix in those two states.

Running the 500 stores that Dollar General added to the 2009 Store Openings list has also kept its employees busy this year. And the 50 Dollar General stores that the chain will be adding every month to the Store Openings list in 2010 isn't going to leave much time for slacking off next year either.

One thing that is keeping Dollar General particularly busy lately is the number of police officers who have been frequenting its stores. At least 21 crimes were committed in Dollar General stores in the past six weeks, more than half of which were armed robberies. While the chain takes pride in its "small, convenient neighborhood stores," located in areas that are underserved by other retailers, often there's a good reason why other retailers don't want to set up shop across the street.

Apparently Dollar General stores are quickly taking their place alongside convenience stores as desirable targets for thieves, armed robbers, flim-flam artists, and even arsonists. Hopefully Dollar General is not viewing all of this as just a cost of doing business. Having worked with the convenience store industry, I have seen firsthand how the perceived threat of crime can make every aspect of running a retail business extremely difficult. If just one of these crimes turns bloody, it's going to take more than low-priced toys, advancement opportunities, and a good PR firm to clean up the mess.

One thing Dollar General has not been busy doing is adding any female talent to its board of directors. According to a new report on female executive leadership, Dollar General has the dubious distinction of being the only Fortune 500 retail chain without a female board member, even though it would be safe to assume that the majority of both its customers and employees are female. Dollar General just added two new members to its board this fall, both of them male. Perhaps the lack of female presence in the boardroom is linked somehow to the EEOC lawsuit filed against the chain this fall for sexual harassment. It could be just a coincidence, I suppose.

Another busy retail chain is the chain that opened more than 150 stores within a matter of a few days last week. That was not as impossible as it sounds, because in this case, the stores were InkStop locations which had been abruptly abandoned back on October 1st when doors were locked and employees were locked out without advance notice. The bankruptcy court handling this case ordered the stores to be reopened last week and all inventory, equipment, and fixtures to be sold "regardless of cost or loss." It's not clear whether any of the proceeds of the chain's liquidation will get distributed to the 500 or so employees that are owed an estimated $1 million for unpaid wages and benefits. The small consolation is that at least some of the wronged InkStop employees will have temporary holiday employment working at the liquidation sales. Reportedly, the liquidation companies actually do pass out regular paychecks.

Unfortunately, the bankruptcy courts have been busy lately too, and are still processing new retail filings. Just last week The Walking Company (WALK.PK) added its chain to the 2009 Retail Chapter 11 list, a list which has continued to grow all throughout the year. Too bad the InkStop stores weren't re-opened when The Walking Company was printing the going-out-of-business signs for the 90 namesake stores that it wants to liquidate immediately. The liquidation signage reportedly was ready to post even before the Chapter 11 papers were filed. If all goes as planned, 120 Walking Company stores will emerge from bankruptcy, but the company's last eight Big Dog stores will be put to sleep.

Two other retail chains will be keeping themselves busy with head-to-head competition for the rest of 2009 and for all of 2010. Qdoba (JACK) and Chipotle (CMG) restaurant chains have both been expanding throughout this recessionary year, sometimes opening stores in the same cities at the same time. For example, a new Qdoba and a new Chipotle were both opened within two days of each other in Modesto, CA. Only four miles separates the two fast-food Mexican restaurants, so basically they are both marketing to the same people in the same neighborhood.

This ojo-por-ojo competition happens a lot between Qdoba and Chipotle. Recently Qdoba added a Kids Meal menu starting at $3.39. That was in response to Chipotle's new Kids Menu with prices starting at $2.95. Qdoba offered a free kids' meal with purchase of a regular entr�e as an introductory deal. Chipotle offers a free kids' meal with purchase of a regular entr�e one day every week.

Qdoba sponsors the Boston Red Sox. Chipotle sponsors Garmin-Slipstream Pro Cycling. Qdoba was ranked #94 on the Entrepreneur Franchise 500 list. Chipotle got five top-five mentions on the 2009 Zagat Fast Food survey. Qdoba has a customer loyalty program. Chipotle has a 2010 global store expansion planned in London. Qdoba has online ordering. Chipotle has an iPhone app. Qdoba has burrito trivia on its website. Chipotle has pencil tapping on its website. (Both are worth checking out.)

Chipotle is committed to "Food With Integrity," which is "unprocessed, seasonal, family-farmed, sustainable, naturally raised, hormone free, and organic." Qdoba is "passionate" about serving "fresh, healthful and minimally processed ingredients whenever possible." The two chains were pretty even in the competition up to this point. From a consumer point of view, though, there's a huge difference between being "committed to food with integrity," and being "passionate whenever possible."

With its "food integrity" strategy alone, Chipotle ensures that it will win the race in the long term because eventually, all the other fast food chains are going to kill off their customers with poisoned factory farm food supplies. Therein lies the fatal flaw in the long-term business plans of almost all of America's fast food chains.

Considering the nasty business that was keeping the U.S. retail industry busy last year - massive markdowns, desperation layoffs, and war room marathons - this year's busy-ness doesn't seem so bad. Perhaps this time next year retail chains will just be busy taking care of business. Christmas wishes sometimes come true.

U.S. Retail Industry Numbers: 434 Store Closings, 1069 Store Openings, 8 Chapter 11 Filings and 21 Crimes Keep Retailers Busy This Holiday Shopping Season (DG, WALK.PK, JACK, CMG) originally appeared on About.com Retail Industry on Tuesday, December 15th, 2009 at 04:33:57.

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U.S. Retail Industry November Same Store Sales Declines Disappoint Retail Analysts and Ben Bernanke More Than Wall Street Or U.S. Retailers (SKS, GPS, ANF, DDS)

2009-12-08T06:13:54Z

The consensus from the Washington Post, Business Week, the Associated Press and about 2,941 other media outlets was that November sales in the U.S. retail industry were "disappointing." According to the media headlines, the only things more disappointing than November's sales comps were the Ultimate Fighter finale, the release of James Cameron's Avatar video game, and, of course, Tiger Woods' abdication of his throne in Squeaky Cleandom.

When looking at a complete November same store sales list, there seems to be plenty to be disappointed about. Twenty-three major U.S. retail chains saw their same store sales decline from November, 2008. Last November was not the start of a jolly holiday shopping season by any standard, so it was hoped, assumed, and expected that it would not be difficult for U.S. retailers to outperform themselves and show some positive year-over-year progress.

The progress, though, wasn't obvious, so the headlines declared the retail industry to be a disappointment. Upon closer examination, there are some disappointing aspects of the retail sector in November, but really not enough to justify the blanket characterization of disappointment found in the media headlines. Who really was all that disappointed with November's same store sales results?

BJ's and Buckle are not disappointed because when you look at a comparison of November same store sales figures, these two chains are the only two major U.S. retailers that have had positive same store sales growth for the past four Novembers in a row. BJ's and Buckle havn't had much reason to be disappointed all year, but they have had a reason to be confused. They still can't figure out what this recession fuss is all about.

Aeropostale, Ross, TJX and Walgreen shouldn't be too disappointed because their November 2009 same store sales gains exceeded the losses they suffered in the cataclysmic November of 2008. That's quite an accomplishment considering how very few things about the U.S. retail industry have rebounded completely from last year's meltdown.

The nine other chains that don't have a minus sign in front of their November same store sales numbers can't be all that disappointed, even if they had hoped and expected more from themselves. Even flat results were positive because as we all know too well, things could have been, and certainly have been, a lot worse.

Macy's, American Eagle, Neiman Marcus, Bon-Ton, Duckwall-ALCO, JC Penney, Stein Mart, Target, Wet Seal, and Zumiez are probably not thrilled to have negative same store sales percentages, but at least the numbers behind their minus signs are smaller than they were last November. That represents positive movement for these ten chains, and it's difficult to be disappointed about anything moving in the direction of stabilization.

So if these 25 major U.S. retail chains aren't disappointed in their November 2009 same store sales results, where is all the disappointment that the headlines are screaming about?

Well, it's never good to be the one at the bottom of the monthly same store sales list, especially when you're a chain that derives much of your brand identity from looking down your noses at everyone else. So, of course, Saks (SKS) is disappointed that the affluent elite didn't cash in more of their recent stock market gains and exchange it for material evidence of their fame and fortune in November. Saks is especially disappointed that luxury rival Neiman Marcus didn't join them in their double-digit disgrace. Apparently the Limited Edition Jaguar in the 2009 Neiman Marcus Christmas catalogue is moving better than the $2,350 Christian Loubitin No 1 Pure Perfume for men at Saks. There's just no accounting for bad taste.

The Gap (GPS) should be disappointed because for the fifth year in a row it wasn't able to return a positive November same store sales figure with its namesake chain, even with an aggressive amount of advertising this year. Those dancy-rapping cheer-chanting kids in the current Gap TV ads are certainly attention-getting enough. (And really - "how cute are those boots?") Apparently, though, even Black Friday week commercials every 15 minutes didn't help the chain sell enough of the stuff that their junior pitch squad was doing back flips about to keep it from sliding back to 2003 sales levels. This actually is probably more surprising than disappointing to the Gap execs.

If same store sales is a true reflection of the number of shoppers and the prices they're paying year-over-year, then the Gap's five-year November struggle may be revealing the gap between what the chain's buyers are buying and what the consuming public thinks are the right products at the right prices. The thing that the Gap is probably most clearly illustrating for the retail industry is that you can't really make up for merchandising misses with marketing. Lucky for the Gap, though, (and particularly lucky for the Gap advertising agency) they can usually find a plausible way to blame the weather or the calendar or the economy for just about any of their November retailing missteps. If it wasn't for (fill in the blank with a convenient excuse), those Gap Kids $98 Stella McCartney "comfy sweaters" would be flying out the door.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is another retail chain that should be disappointed with its November same store sales because on top of the 28% decline they saw in November 2008, they underperformed themselves by another 17% this November. Seventeen must be the chain's lucky number because November 2009 marks the 17th month in a row that Abercrombie & Fitch has returned double-digit negative same store sales figures. And if that's not disappointing enough, Abercrombie should be disappointed that its third quarter profits fell 39%. It's doubtful, though, that Abercrombie will ever actually admit that it is disappointed with anything related to its performance. Honest self-evaluation doesn't really seem to be one of Mike Jeffries' leadership values.

Dillard's (DDS) is another chain that can be included in the disappointed retailers club because its November sales have been on a downward slide for the entire decade. The $438 million that Dillard's cash registers rang up in November, 2009 was only slightly more than what was handed to them by their customers in November, 1993. It's got to be disappointing to have regressed 16 years in your business results.

If the retail industry was a game of Chutes and Ladders (and really, if you think about it, it is), and Dillard's is one of the players on the game board, then its brightly colored plastic game piece landed on that dreaded space #87 back in 2001. And since then, the chain has been on a decade-long ride down the biggest chute on the game board.

It's not clear whether Dillard's has actually reached the bottom of the chute yet, or if it will continue to slide until it falls off the board completely. There are some experts who have predicted "game over" for Dillard's already. Obviously, though, Wall Street is betting that the chain has bounced off the bottom of the chute and is ready to roll the dice and proceed with play since Dillard's "disappointing" November sales numbers actually created a rise in its stock prices.

In fact, nearly half of the retailers with same stores sales declines in November saw an immediate lift to their stock prices after reporting their negative results. How does that compute?

The answer to that, of course, is profit - either real in the present or imaginary in the future. Even if the strength of the chain has decreased, which is what same store sales is supposed to be showing us, if the chain still manages to find a way to turn a profit, or even if it looks like the chain has the promise of finding a way to turn a profit in the near future, Wall Street rewards it. This is exactly what happened this month with Dillard's. Even though its same store sales revealed a dismally digressed state of affairs, its profit trumped everything and it received analyst praise and a subsequent lift in stock prices.

After Wall Street rewarded so many of this month's decliners, it leaves me wondering why we go through this same store sales exercise every month if the financial community is going to ignore the results anyway. Then again, my overall opinion that same store sales is a misused and grossly misinterpreted measurement leaves me bewildered about the same store sales game just about every month.

So, from the perspective of proving that the time, effort, and energy devoted to the same store sales game every month is time, effort, and energy misspent, November didn't disappoint.

U.S. Retail Industry November Same Store Sales Declines Disappoint Retail Analysts and Ben Bernanke More Than Wall Street Or U.S. Retailers (SKS, GPS, ANF, DDS) originally appeared on About.com Retail Industry on Tuesday, December 8th, 2009 at 06:13:54.

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U.S. Retail Industry Drops Cyber Monday Only Specials to Boost Black Friday Weekend Results (AMZN, DELL, OSTK, SHLD, BAMM)

2009-11-30T00:01:52Z

Twas the night before Cyber Monday and all through the 'net, hardly a new special was posted - did the e-tailers forget?

Five years ago Cyber Monday didn't exist. In 2005 when the National Retail Federation was first credited for dubbing the Monday after Thanksgiving as "Cyber Monday," the day really wasn't a record-breaking online shopping day at all. So, why all the fuss? Well, since the U.S. retail industry had long since taken possession of every major and minor national holiday in America, it needed a fresh way to trigger the buying impulse. What better way to do that than with a fabricated retail event of its own creation? With the appropriate amount of media hype, any day can be turned into a consuming phenonmenon, right?

The theory worked for the first three years of the make-believe online shopping day of deals. Retailers were willing to play along, and created Black Friday-type one-day only online specials to give Cyber Monday some substance and credibility. Why not?

Well, there's at least one big "why not" for Cyber Monday specials this year - the newfound American frugality. The drastic changes in consuming, or the fear of them, have launched an aggressive national game of Retail Stratego, along with the prevailing retail tactic of pre-emptive strikes. Most retailers aren't focusing on big one-day only Cyber Monday sales, because if they did, they would risk losing their share of this year's diminished holiday shopping budgets.

So instead of Cyber Monday, this year we really had "Black Weekend," which started for many major retailers on Thanksgiving Day and will extend through at least Monday, if not beyond. The deals that most online shoppers will see on Cyber Monday 2009 are the same deals that could have been seen running on e-commerce websites all weekend. That's good news for those who have been filling their virtual shoppng carts already. It's not such great news for those who want to have a semi-legitimate excuse for shopping on the job on Cyber Monday.

Even though retailers are not wholeheartedly honoring the sanctity of the day itself, there are still some efforts being made to make the day worth the hype. Retailers who are running specific one-day only Cyber Monday specials include:

Amazon (AMZN)
A designated page lists "Cyber Monday" deals, but they were available on Sunday, and some of them will be sold out before Monday begins. For these and other "lightning specials" that Amazon is running this holiday season, there is a nifty little HSN-type timer that shows how long the deal will be available, and how much of the inventory is left. It's a gimmick, but it's fun.

Dell (DELL)
CyberMonday deals were advertised to go live at 12:01 a.m.

Kmart
Notice of Cyber Monday only specials was tweeted from their Twitter account, along with a link to a sneak preview page. Like Daddy Sears there was no mention of a start time, which probably means a midnight switchover.

Overstock.com (OSTK)
There were 89 specials dubbed "Cyber Monday," although they were also available for purchase on Sunday.

Sears (SHLD)
Cyber Monday specials appeared on their home page at 9:00 p.m. on Sunday night, but weren't live immediately. Presumably, they will start at 12:01 a.m., although no start time was specifically stated.

Toys 'R Us
There are more than 200 specials designated as "Cyber Monday Only," although they were available for purchase on Sunday.

That's Cyber Monday? Really? This is not the sum total of the deals to be had, but it pretty much sums up the only new deals that will be added to the end of a weekend of deals.

Free shipping was hyped as the universal offer for Cyber Monday. While there are plenty of shipping deals to be had, most of the "free" shipping comes with conditions. There are a few sites, however, that are offering completely free shipping with any purchase on Cyber Monday only:

Bealls - free shipping, with no minimum order through Monday with code SHOP
Bedford Fair Lifestyles - Free shipping on any order with coupon code 142602
Books A Million (BAMM) - Free shipping any order with code BKLVFREE

Cheryl & Co. - A Special Cookies & Baked Goods "Free Shipping Collection"
Karmaloop - Free Shipping with coupon code GODEEP

Manhattanite - Free shipping on any order with coupon code FreeShip09

National Pet Pharmacy - Free shipping on any product in the Flea and Tick department (This is not really a Cyber Monday special, but the fact that it was included on the list made me laugh out loud.)

Speedo - Free shipping on any order with coupon code NWARL

Waterford - Free shipping and free gift wrap with coupon code BLACKFRIDAY

That's the whole Cyber Monday free shipping list? Really? It's much shorter than the list of websites with completely free shipping every day.

Undoubtedly there will be more deals and more shipping freebies available on Cyber Monday than are listed here. It's just a matter of finding them, which is never a small task with bojillions of online retailers to choose from. The search is doubly difficult this year because it's hard to tell where one promotion ends and another one begins.

Serious Cyber Monday shoppers will just have to click through their favorite sites to see what pops up. That is about as much fun as sifting through the dressing room reject racks looking for something in your size to try on. To shopping addicts this is recreation. To sane people, the Cyber Monday virtual scavenger hunt this year will be much more exhaustng than fighting the mall mob was on Black Friday. It may even be frustrating enough to make you want to get some work done in your workday.

One last note about Black Weekend... My 2009 Black Friday prediction last week was that the day itself would be ridiculously busy until all the best deals were gone because unemployment is high and consumers are broke. I'm still not sure if that prediction was accurate or not. It's not that there was a lack of data or conclusion-drawing provided after Black Friday, it's just that I was in Orlando, and it was nearly impossible to get any news that didn't contain a reference to Tiger Woods.

The mystery about where the world's most recognizable sports figure was going at 2:30 a.m. on Black Friday, by the way, is not really such a mystery to those of us who spend time in Orlando. There aren't that many late-night destinations in the land of Mickey Mouse, so the answer seems pretty clear.

The Old Navy stores were scheduled to open at 3:00 a.m., so this was an obvious destination for Tiger. It makes sense, if you think about it. Nothing says "I'm sorry for my tabloid love affair Down Under" like Old Navy performance fleece and LEGO RockBand gift-with-purchase software. Unfortunately, though, Tiger didn't make it all the way to the Old Navy Black Friday sale. This is one of those cases when shopping online clearly would have been the better choice.

U.S. Retail Industry Drops Cyber Monday Only Specials to Boost Black Friday Weekend Results (AMZN, DELL, OSTK, SHLD, BAMM) originally appeared on About.com Retail Industry on Monday, November 30th, 2009 at 00:01:52.

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Predictions Indicate Black Friday May End the 2009 Holiday Shopping Season, Leaving the U.S. Retail Industry In the Red With Declines (SHLD, WMT, SSI, AMZN, GPS)

2009-11-24T05:27:08Z

In a survey released yesterday, the Conference Board reported that the average U.S. household plans to spend $390 on holiday shopping this year. This is a jaw-dropping 43% lower than the $683 per-person shopping budget that the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicted in its 2009 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey. Both predictions represent sales declines from 2008, but the size of those predicted declines is disturbingly disparate when you consider that one prediction is per household and the other is per person.

It's obvious which of these two survey results we all want to believe. It may not be so obvious which survey deserves to be believed.

From a purely historical perspective, neither organization is particularly accurate in its holiday shopping predictions. In 2008 the NRF's holiday intentions survey predicted a 2.2% increase in holiday spending. The Conference Board predicted a 12% decrease. In reality, there was a 3.4% sales drop in the U.S. retail industry overall in the 2008 holiday season. So the NRF was really wrong in predicting a spending increase and the Conference Board was really wrong in predicting the size of the spending decrease.

The truth about holiday spending in 2009 will probably be found somewhere between the $390 household and the $683 individual budget that the each organization's research predicts. That is a scary big gap that nobody wants to believe the retail industry will plummet into this holiday season. Yes, Mr. Bernanke, there is a recession.

One major anomaly is going to skew the 2009 holiday shopping numbers... read more...

Predictions Indicate Black Friday May End the 2009 Holiday Shopping Season, Leaving the U.S. Retail Industry In the Red With Declines (SHLD, WMT, SSI, AMZN, GPS) originally appeared on About.com Retail Industry on Tuesday, November 24th, 2009 at 05:27:08.

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