About.com Day Trading

My Market Prediction for the Next Ten Years is ...

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 04:28:50 +0000

... that I don't know what the financial markets will do, and neither does anybody else.

If you read the title of this blog post, and actually thought that I was going to make a definitive prediction for the financial markets for the next ten years, you definitely need to read the rest of this blog post, and should probably read my article where I reveal the holy grail of trading as well.

It is almost the end of the year, and also the end of the first decade of the first century of the third millenium (phew), and it is about this time that a lot of people (note that I said people not traders) start talking about what the financial markets will do over the next year and even the next ten years.

Most people will say that the financial markets are going to be bullish (primarily because this is what they want to happen). Some people will say that the financial markets are going to be bearish (perhaps because of a desire to be contrary to the masses). The truth is that nobody knows what the financial markets are going to do, and anyone who claims that they do is either a prophet or a fool (most likely the latter).

Successful traders do not try to predict what the financial markets are going to do over any length of time, and certainly not for such a ridiculous length of time as ten years. Profitable trading is about analysing a market, and then making trades based upon that analysis, but it is not about trying to guess (which is exactly what a market prediction is) what a market is going to do.

As we get closer to the end of the year, there will be more and more market predictions from many so called market analysts, and if you are an aspiring trader, you will need to ignore every one of them. These predictions are designed to sell advertising on mass media, and no successful trader will ever pay any attention to such a market prediction (or any other market information that comes from the mass media).

So, if you haven't already done so, this is a good time to decide which group you want to be part of, the prediction hungry public, or the prediction averse traders. If after reading this, the correct choice isn't obvious, then I apologize for distracting you from your search for the holy grail :-).

My Market Prediction for the Next Ten Years is ... originally appeared on About.com Day Trading on Tuesday, November 24th, 2009 at 04:28:50.

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Economic Calendar With Volatility Expectations

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 01:59:05 +0000

There are only a few news releases from the US this week, but many news releases from Europe, and several news releases from Asia. The US has seven high volatility news releases, while Europe has seven high volatility news releases, and Asia has three high volatility news releases. Markets from all three regions will probably experience some significant volatility and price movement at some point (US markets) or throughout this week (European and Asian markets).

The US, European, and Asian news releases for this week are as follows (all times are Greenwich Mean Time, which is 1 hour behind Central European Time, and 5 hours ahead of US Eastern Time) :

Monday : Existing Home Sales at 3:00 PM
Tuesday : GDP at 1:30 PM, HPI at 2:00 PM, Consumer Confidence, HPI, and Manufacturing Index at 3:00 PM, and FOMC Meeting at 7:00 PM
Wednesday : Durable Goods Orders, Unemployment Claims, PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, and Personal Income at 1:30 PM, Consumer Sentiment, and Inflation Expectations at 2:55 PM, New Home Sales at 3:00 PM, Oil Inventories at 3:30 PM, and Natural Gas Storage at 5:00 PM
Thursday : No News Releases
Friday : No News Releases

This week's US news releases that should cause high volatility are shown in bold type. There are only a few US news releases this week, but seven high volatility news releases. The US markets will probably experience some significant volatility and price movement at some point this week.

Europe

Monday : France PMI Manufacturing and Services at 8:00 AM, Germany PMI Manufacturing and Services at 8:30 AM, EU PMI Manufacturing and Services at 9:00 AM, and EU Central Bank News Conference at 1:00 PM
Tuesday : Switzerland Consumption Indicator, and Germany GDP at 7:00 AM, France Consumer Spending at 7:50 AM, Switzerland Employment Level at 8:15 AM, Germany Business Climate at 9:00 AM, UK Mortgage Approvals, and Business Investment at 9:30 AM, UK Inflation Report at 9:45 AM, EU Industrial Orders at 10:00 AM, Belgium Business Climate at 2:00 PM, UK Central Bank News Conference at 3:35 PM, and Switzerland Central Bank News Conference at 5:30 PM
Wednesday : Germany Consumer Climate at 7:00 AM, UK HPI at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time), Italy Retail Sales at 9:00 AM, and UK GDP, and Index of Services at 9:30 AM
Thursday : Germany CPI at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time), EU Money Supply, and Private Loans at 9:00 AM, Germany Bundesbank News Conference at 10:15 AM, UK Realized Sales at 11:00 AM, and Germany Bundesbank News Conference at 5:00 PM
Friday : Germany Import Prices at 7:00 AM, EU Consumer Confidence at 10:00 AM, and Switzerland Economic Barometer at 10:30 AM

This week's European news releases that should cause high volatility are shown in bold type. There are many� European news releases this week, and seven high volatility news releases. The European markets will probably experience significant volatility and price movement throughout this week.

Asia

Monday : Australia Vehicle Sales at 12:30 AM, and Australia Leading Index at 11:00 PM
Tuesday : Japan Central Bank Report at 5:00 AM, Australia Central Bank News Conference at 10:20 PM, and Japan Trade Balance, and CSPI at 11:50 PM
Wednesday : Australia Construction Work at 12:30 AM, and Japan Monetary Policy at 11:50 PM
Thursday : Australia Private Capital Expenditure at 12:30 AM, New Zealand Business Confidence at 2:00 AM, New Zealand Trade Balance at 9:45 PM, Japan Household Spending, CPI, and Unemployment Rate at 11:30 PM, and Japan Retail Sales at 11:50 PM
Friday : New Zealand Inflation Expectations at 2:00 AM

This week's Asian news releases that should cause high volatility are shown in bold type. There are several Asian news releases this week, but only three high volatility news releases. The Asian markets will probably experience some significant volatility and price movement throughout this week.

Economic Calendar With Volatility Expectations originally appeared on About.com Day Trading on Monday, November 23rd, 2009 at 01:59:05.

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Japanese Candlestick Patterns - Inverted Hammer and Shooting Star

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 03:52:15 +0000

The fourth pair of the japanese candlestick patterns that require two separate candlesticks are composed of almost identical individual candlesticks, but have slightly different placement, and provide completely different indications. The inverted hammer and the shooting star are relatively easy to identify on a price chart, and in the appropriate context they can be used as trade entry and trade exit signals.

Japanese Candlestick Patterns - Inverted Hammer and Shooting Star originally appeared on About.com Day Trading on Sunday, November 22nd, 2009 at 03:52:15.

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Economic Calendar With Volatility Expectations

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 03:34:12 +0000

There are several news releases from each region (the US, Europe, and Asia) this week. The US has seven high volatility news releases, while Europe has five high volatility news releases, and Asia has two high volatility news releases. Markets from all three regions will probably experience some significant volatility and price movement throughout this week.

The US, European, and Asian news releases for this week are as follows (all times are Greenwich Mean Time, which is 1 hour behind Central European Time, and 5 hours ahead of US Eastern Time) :

Monday : Retail Sales, and Manufacturing Index at 1:30 PM, Business Inventories at 3:00 PM, Central Bank News Conference at 5:15 PM, and FOMC News Conference at 11:15 PM
Tuesday : FOMC News Conference at 10:30 AM, PPI at 1:30 PM, Long Term Purchases at 2:00 PM, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Industrial Production at 2:15 PM, FOMC News Conference at 3:15 PM, and Housing Market Index at 6:00 PM
Wednesday : Building Permits, CPI, and Housing Starts at 1:30 PM, and Oil Inventories at 3:30 PM
Thursday : Unemployment Claims at 1:30 PM, Manufacturing Index, and Leading Index at 3:00 PM, and Natural Gas Storage at 3:30 PM
Friday : No News Releases

This week's US news releases that should cause high volatility are shown in bold type. There are several US news releases this week, and seven high volatility news releases. The US markets will probably experience some significant volatility and price movement throughout this week.

Europe

Monday : UK HPI at 12:01 AM, UK MPC News Conference at 8:15 AM, Germany Bundesbank News Conference at 8:50 AM, EU CPI at 10:00 AM, and UK MPC News Conference at 6:00 PM
Tuesday : Switzerland Retail Sales at 8:15 AM, UK CPI, and RPI at 9:30 AM, EU Trade Balance at 10:00 AM, and UK Inflation at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time)
Wednesday : EU Central Bank News Conference at 8:40 AM, EU Current Account at 9:00 AM, UK MPC Meeting at 9:30 AM, and UK Industrial Order Expectations at 11:00 AM
Thursday : Switzerland Trade Balance at 7:15 AM, Italy Trade Balance at 9:00 AM, UK MPC News Conference at 9:20 AM, UK Retail Sales, Public Sector Borrowing, and Money Supply at 9:30 AM, and EU Central Bank News Conference at 4:00 PM
Friday : UK Financial Stability at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time), Germany PPI at 7:00 AM, Germany Bundesbank News Conference at 8:00 AM, Switzerland Central Bank News Conference at 9:15 AM, and EU Central Bank News Conference at 10:30 AM

This week's European news releases that should cause high volatility are shown in bold type. There are several� European news releases this week, and five high volatility news releases. The European markets will probably experience significant volatility and price movement throughout this week.

Asia

Monday : Japan Central Bank News Conference at 12:30 AM, China Foreign Direct Investment at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time), and Japan Industry Activity at 11:50 PM
Tuesday : Australia Monetary Policy Meeting at 12:30 AM, and Australia Central Bank News Conference at 10:05 PM
Wednesday : Australia Leading Index at 12:00 AM, and Australia Wage Price Index at 12:30 AM
Thursday : Australia Central Bank Bulletin at 12:30 AM, Australia Central Bank News Conference at 1:00 AM, and Japan Industry Activity at 4:30 AM
Friday : New Zealand Credit Card Spending at 2:00 AM, and Japan Monetary Policy, Overnight Call Rate, and Central Bank News Conference at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time)

This week's Asian news releases that should cause high volatility are shown in bold type. There are several Asian news releases this week, but only two high volatility news releases. However, the Asian markets will probably experience some significant volatility and price movement throughout this week.

Economic Calendar With Volatility Expectations originally appeared on About.com Day Trading on Monday, November 16th, 2009 at 03:34:12.

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Japanese Candlestick Patterns - Bullish and Bearish Harami Cross

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 10:24:14 +0000

The third pair of the japanese candlestick patterns that require two separate candlesticks to be explained are variations of the bullish and bearish harami, namely the bullish and bearish harami cross. The bullish harami cross and the bearish harami cross are based upon the same concept as the bullish and bearish harami patterns, but have a significant difference in their meaning and their appearance. The bullish and bearish harami cross patterns are relatively easy to identify on a price chart, but they can not really be used as trade entry and trade exit signals (at least not on their own).

Japanese Candlestick Patterns - Bullish and Bearish Harami Cross originally appeared on About.com Day Trading on Sunday, November 15th, 2009 at 10:24:14.

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Economic Calendar With Volatility Expectations

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 05:10:50 +0000

There are only a few news releases from the US this week, but many news releases from Europe and Asia. The US has two high volatility news releases, while Europe has five high volatility news releases, and Asia has seven high volatility news releases. The US markets will probably experience their usual level of volatility and price movement, while the European and Asian markets will probably experience some significant volatility and price movement throughout this week.

The US, European, and Asian news releases for this week are as follows (all times are Greenwich Mean Time, which is now 1 hour behind Central European Time, and 5 hours ahead of US Eastern Time) :

Monday : No News Releases
Tuesday : FOMC News Conference at 2:15 PM, Economic Optimism at 3:00 PM, FOMC News Conference at 3:05 PM, Loan Survey at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time), and FOMC News Conference at 8:30 PM
Wednesday : No News Releases
Thursday :�Unemployment Claims at 1:30 PM, Oil Inventories at 4:00 PM, and Budget Balance at 7:00 PM
Friday : Trade Balance, and Import Prices at 1:30 PM, Consumer Sentiment, and Inflation Expectations at 2:55 PM, Natural Gas Storage at 3:30 PM, and FOMC News Conference at 4:30 PM

This week's US news releases that should cause high volatility are shown in bold type. There are only a few US news releases this week, and only two high volatility news releases. The US markets will probably experience their usual level of volatility and price movement throughout this week.

Europe

Monday : Germany Trade Balance at 7:00 AM, EU Investor Confidence at 9:30 AM, and Germany Industrial Production at 11:00 AM
Tuesday : UK Retail Sales, and House Price Balance at 12:01 AM, Germany CPI, and WPI at 7:00 AM, France Industrial Production at 7:45 AM, Italy Industrial Production at 9:00 AM, UK Trade Balance, and HPI at 9:30 AM, and Germany Economic Sentiment, EU Economic Sentiment, and UK Leading Index at 10:00 AM
Wednesday : UK Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index, and Unemployment Rate at 9:30 AM, UK Central Bank News Conference, and Inflation Report at 10:30 AM, and Germany Bundesbank News Conference at 5:00 PM
Thursday : EU Central Bank Bulletin at 9:00 AM, Switzerland Economic Expectations, and EU Industrial Production at 10:00 AM, Switzerland News Conference at 5:00 PM, and EU Central Bank News Conference at 7:00 PM
Friday : UK Financial Stability Report at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time), Germany GDP at 7:00 AM, France Non Farm Payrolls, and CPI at 7:45 AM, France GDP at 7:50 AM, Switzerland PPI at 8:15 AM, Italy GDP at 9:00 AM, EU GDP at 10:00 AM, and Germany Bundesbank News Conference at 1:15 PM

This week's European news releases that should cause high volatility are shown in bold type. There are many European news releases this week, and five high volatility news releases. The European markets will probably experience some high volatility and significant price movement throughout this week.

Asia

Monday : Australia Home Loans, and Job Advertisements at 12:30 AM, Australia Central Bank News Conference at 3:20 AM, and Japan Bank Lending, Current Account, and Money Stock at 11:50 PM
Tuesday : Australia Business Confidence at 12:30 AM, China Money Supply, and New Yuan Loans at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time), Japan Economy Watchers' Sentiment at 5:00 AM, Japan Machine Tool Orders at 6:00 AM, New Zealand Financial Stability Report at 8:00 PM, New Zealand FPI at 9:45 PM, Australia Consumer Sentiment at 11:30 PM, and Japan Machinery Orders at 11:50 PM
Wednesday : China Industrial Production, CPI, Fixed Asset Investment, National Bureau of Statistics News Conference, PPI, and Retail Sales at 2:00 AM, China Trade Balance at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time), New Zealand Manufacturing Index at 9:30 PM, New Zealand Retail Sales at 9:45 PM, and Japan CGPI at 11:50 PM
Thursday : Australia Inflation Expectations at 12:00 AM, and Australia Employment Change, and Unemployment Rate at 12:30 AM
Friday : China Foreign Direct Investment at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time), Japan Industrial Production at 4:30 AM, and Japan Household Confidence at 5:00 AM

This week's Asian news releases that should cause high volatility are shown in bold type. There are many Asian news releases this week, and seven high volatility news releases. The Asian markets will probably experience their usual high volatility and significant price movement throughout this week.

Economic Calendar With Volatility Expectations originally appeared on About.com Day Trading on Sunday, November 8th, 2009 at 05:10:50.

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Japanese Candlestick Patterns - Bullish and Bearish Harami

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 03:07:42 +0000

The second of the japanese candlestick patterns that require two separate candlesticks (i.e. the double candlestick patterns) to be explained are the bullish and bearish harami. The bullish harami and the bearish harami are similar but opposite to the bullish and bearish engulfing patterns, and are therefore also relatively easy to identify on a price chart, and in the appropriate contexts they can be used as trade entry and trade exit signals.

Japanese Candlestick Patterns - Bullish and Bearish Harami originally appeared on About.com Day Trading on Friday, November 6th, 2009 at 03:07:42.

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Trading Markets' ETF PowerRatings

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 05:53:38 +0000

I recently reviewed the statistical trading book High Probability ETF Trading by Larry Conners, which provides several statistical trading strategies that are specifically designed for trading ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) markets. Trading Markets (Larry's company and the book's publisher) has just released a new ETF trading tool that goes hand in hand with the book.

The tool is called ETF PowerRatings, and it provides statistical rankings for many ETF markets that are designed to indicate whether each ETF should be bought or sold (or neither). The ETF rankings are based upon statistical analysis of the ETF markets from 2003 to 2009, and while the exact analysis method is not disclosed, it is most likely very similar to the analysis that is used in the book (which would be expected).

I have reviewed the ETF PowerRatings tool, and to be honest, when I first saw the tool, I was not overly impressed, because the tool simply seemed to be saying buy or sell without providing any additional information. However, the tool also provides charts of each ETF market with the buying and selling indications marked on the chart (as shown above), so it is possible to see exactly where each buying and selling indication occured. This provides a much more useful view of the buying and selling indications, and makes the tool much more useful.

If you are an ETF trader or a statistical trader, or if you have read High Probability ETF Trading, the ETF PowerRatings tool may be of interest to you. The ETF PowerRatings tool, and further information about the tool, are available at the Trading Markets web site. The tool is available for free for seven days (i.e. a free trial), after which it costs $79.95 per month (before any yearly discounts).

Note that while I have tested the ETF PowerRatings tool, I have not reviewed any of the trades that it would have indicated, so as usual, I recommend that traders perform their own testing of the tool (which could easily be done during the seven day trial) before they make any of the trades that are suggested.

Trading Markets' ETF PowerRatings originally appeared on About.com Day Trading on Wednesday, November 4th, 2009 at 05:53:38.

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Economic Calendar With Volatility Expectations

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 04:52:47 +0000

There are several news releases from the US this week, and many news releases from Europe and Asia. The US has nine high volatility news releases, while Europe has ten high volatility news releases, and Asia has ten high volatility news releases. Markets from all three regions will probably experience some significant volatility and price movement throughout this week.

The US, European, and Asian news releases for this week are as follows (all times are Greenwich Mean Time, which is now 1 hour behind Central European Time, and 5 hours ahead of US Eastern Time) :

Monday : PMI ISM Manufacturing, Pending Home Sales, Construction Spending, and ISM Manufacturing Prices at 3:00 PM, and FOMC News Conference at 8:00 PM
Tuesday : Factory Orders at 3:00 PM, Vehicle Sales at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time), and Loan Survey at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time)
Wednesday : Job Cuts at 12:30 PM, Non Farm Employment Change at 1:15 PM, PMI ISM Non Manufacturing at 3:00 PM, Oil Inventories at 3:30 PM, and FOMC News Conference, and Federal Funds Rate at 7:15 PM
Thursday : Unemployment Claims, Non Farm Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs at 1:30 PM, and Natural Gas Storage at 3:30 PM
Friday : G20 Meeting at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time), Non Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings at 1:30 PM, FOMC News Conference at 2:45 PM, Wholesale Inventories at 3:00 PM, FOMC News Conference at 4:30 PM, and Consumer Credit at 8:00 PM

This week's US news releases that should cause high volatility are shown in bold type. There are several US news releases this week, and nine high volatility news releases. The US markets will probably experience some significant volatility and price movement throughout this week.

Europe

Monday : Switzerland PMI at 8:30 AM, EU PMI Manufacturing at 9:00 AM, UK HPI at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time), UK PMI Manufacturing at 9:30 AM, and Switzerland News Conference at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time)
Tuesday : UK PMI Construction at 9:30 AM, and Germany Bundesbank News Conference at 5:00 PM
Wednesday : UK Consumer Confidence, and Shop Price Index at 12:01 AM, EU PMI Services at 9:00 AM, UK PMI Services at 9:30 AM, and EU PPI at 10:00 AM
Thursday : Switzerland Consumer Climate at 6:45 AM, Switzerland CPI at 8:15 AM, UK Manufacturing Production, and Industrial Production at 9:30 AM, EU Retail Sales at 10:00 AM, UK Asset Purchase Facility at 12:00 PM, UK MPC Rate at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time), UK Official Bank Rate at 12:00 PM, EU Minimum Bid Rate at 12:45 PM, and EU Central Bank News Conference at 1:30 PM
Friday : UK GDP at 12:01 AM, UK Financial Stability Report at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time), Switzerland Unemployment Rate at 6:45 AM, France Budget Balance, and Trade Balance at 7:45 AM, UK PPI at 9:30 AM, G20 Meeting at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time), and Germany Factory Orders at 11:00 AM

This week's European news releases that should cause high volatility are shown in bold type. There are many European news releases this week, and ten high volatility news releases. The European markets will probably continue experiencing their usual high volatility and significant price movement throughout this week.

Asia

Monday : Australia HPI at 12:30 AM, Japan Average Cash Earnings at 1:30 AM, China PMI Manufacturing at 2:30 AM, Australia Commodity Prices at 5:30 AM, and New Zealand Labor Cost Index at 9:45 PM
Tuesday : New Zealand Commodity Prices at 2:00 AM, Australia Cash Rate, and Central Bank Rate at 3:30 AM, Australia Services Index at 10:30 PM, and Japan Monetary Base at 11:50 PM
Wednesday : Australia Bulding Approvals, and Retail Sales at 12:30 AM, Japan Central Bank News Conference at 2:30 AM, New Zealand Employment Change, and Unemployment Rate at 9:45 PM, and Japan Monetary Policy at 11:50 PM
Thursday : Australia Trade Balance at 12:30 AM, Australia Central Bank News Conference at 8:55 AM, and Australia Construction Index at 10:30 PM
Friday : Australia Monetary Policy at 12:30 AM, Japan Leading Indicators at 5:00 AM, Australia Central Bank News Conference at 6:20 AM, and G20 Meeting at ??:?? ?? (Unknown Time)

This week's Asian news releases that should cause high volatility are shown in bold type. There are many Asian news releases this week, and ten high volatility news releases. The Asian markets will probably continue experiencing their usual high volatility and significant price movement throughout this week.

Economic Calendar With Volatility Expectations originally appeared on About.com Day Trading on Monday, November 2nd, 2009 at 04:52:47.

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Japanese Candlestick Patterns - Bullish and Bearish Engulfing

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 08:48:25 +0000

The first of the japanese candlestick patterns that require two separate candlesticks (i.e. the double candlestick patterns) to be explained are the bullish and bearish engulfing (bullish and bearish tsutsumi). The bullish engulfing and the bearish engulfing are relatively easy to identify on a price chart (as long as single candlestick patterns are understood), and in the appropriate contexts they can be used as trade entry and trade exit signals.

Japanese Candlestick Patterns - Bullish and Bearish Engulfing originally appeared on About.com Day Trading on Sunday, November 1st, 2009 at 08:48:25.

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